Tokenized Probability: The Mechanics of the Hybrid Central Limit Order Book
Автор: Mark Ibanez
Загружено: 2026-02-07
Просмотров: 58
Описание:
Most people think of prediction markets as simple betting sites, but under the hood, they are sophisticated financial derivative engines. In this video, we break down the Hybrid CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) model and explore how it turns probabilities into tradable assets.
In this video, we cover:
• Tokenized Probability: How a "share" acts as a conditional claim on collateral, paying out exactly $1 if an outcome occurs and $0 if it doesn't.
• The Completeness Property: Why holding a share of every possible outcome guarantees a win, and how this math prevents risk-free arbitrage by ensuring prices always sum to $1.00.
• Separation of Church and State: The critical architectural decision to separate the on-chain Market Contract (settlement) from the off-chain Order Book (matching engine).
• The "Mint-and-Sell" Mechanism: How you can become your own liquidity provider by minting complete sets of shares and selling the side you don't want.
• Solving the Liquidity Problem: Why Market Makers (MMs) are non-negotiable for ensuring you aren't just holding a hedged position, but making a real active bet.
Whether you are a developer looking to build a market or a trader trying to understand the mechanics of Axiom, this overview explains why this model offers the most efficient price discovery available.
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