8. Cherry Picking

Описание: Cherry Picking: The concept of cherry picking derives from an analogy to the actual picking of cherries. When one picks cherries (or any fruit), one preferentially chooses those that look ripe and tasty, while passing over unappealing specimens. As a result, if you were to scientifically analyze a sample of cherries that have been picked from a particular orchard, you would have a skewed sense of the quality of the cherries in that orchard. There are many ways in which people cherry pick when reasoning and arguing—some intentional and some entirely unconscious. In all its forms, cherry picking skews one’s sense of reality.

Diverse forms of cherry picking include:

1. Sampling bias—selecting a non-representative sample that skews experimental results in favor of a particular hypothesis (e.g., WEIRD test subjects in psychology)

2. Anecdotal arguments—attempting to prove a general point by appealing to selective examples that support one’s view

3. Confirmation bias—focusing on evidence that confirms one’s prejudices

4. False dichotomies—framing an issue as a choice between two options, despite the fact that, in reality, there are more options (e.g., Do you believe black lives matter, or do you support law enforcement? Are you a capitalist or a socialist? Etc.)


I will devote an entire video to each of the above concepts. For now, it is worth noting that they are all forms of cherry picking. I conclude this analysis of cherry picking by describing both benign and problematic forms of cherry picking.

When cherry picking is (more or less) ok:
There are some situations in which cherry picking is more or less appropriate—such as actual cherry picking. No one expects you to pick a representative sample of cherries. Similarly, a lawyer arguing a case is expected to emphasize the arguments that support their client, and it is up to the other side to present countervailing evidence. One is also expected to cherry pick when building a resume and applying for jobs. Salespeople are generally expected to cherry pick information that promotes their sales—within ethical limits. We cherry pick pictures that we share on social media. For instance, the images I have chosen as thumbnails for each Concepts for Thinking video are cherry picked—It would be strange if I chose thumbnail images at random in an effort to create a representative sample of my appearance.

When cherry picking is very bad:
Nevertheless, there are many contexts where cherry picking is very bad. For instance, cherry picking within science is a constant danger, which must be scrupulously avoided if scientific research is to be useful. In the private sector, companies from pharmaceutical companies to engineering firms are subject to legal jeopardy if they cherry pick evidence that support their product while failing to consider potential dangers. Cherry picking is also a problem within law enforcement. If a detective investigating a serious crime cherry picks data that supports their prejudices, they may end up targeting the wrong suspect. Cherry picking is a big part of ideologically motivated science denialism, such as denial of evidence against climate change, denial of evolution, and conspiracy theories like the “flat earth” theory. If one ignores inconvenient evidence or arguments and cherry picks only convenient data points, it is possible to believe just about anything. For this very reason, cherry picking is a temptation for media. Journalists and pundits may choose to highlight evidence that favors a sexy headline or that aligns with the ideology of their outlet. This creates a feedback loop where viewers or readers of ideologically slanted media have their prejudices confirmed, and these audiences then reward media bias by continuing to consume media that fits with their prejudices. Cherry picking is thus a big part of the feedback loops that promote polarization and ideological echo-chambers.

One of my motivations for creating the Concepts for Thinking channel is my concern about increasing polarization in contemporary societies. Behind this polarization are economic and political forces, amplified by technology, such as sophisticated social media algorithms that are growing increasingly better at showing us what we want to see, while sheltering us from important counterpoints. One of the most potent weapons against the ideological forces around us is simply being able to recognize how our thought is being manipulated. I hope this discussion of the dangers of cherry picking helps you develop mental defenses against such manipulation.