When will AI automate all mental work, and how fast?

Описание: Economist Tom Davidson’s 2023 “compute-centric” model answers two questions: when could AI automate all current cognitive labor, and how fast might that transition happen?

Davidson's model considers the resources required to train increasingly capable AI systems (compute × algorithmic efficiency) and the rate at which these resources grow. Simulating the model suggests a median arrival of AI that can automate 100% of human cognitive labor in 2043, with the jump from 20% to 100% automation taking roughly three years.

Dive deeper or test alternative assumptions for yourself:
• Interactive website — https://takeoffspeeds.com
• Tom Davidson's report — https://www.openphilanthropy.org/rese...

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Play around with the model at https://takeoffspeeds.com/

What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds, by Tom Davidson: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/rese...

Data on notable AI models, by Epoch AI: https://epoch.ai/data/notable-ai-mode...

Interview with Ajeya Cotra about measuring the growth of AI:    • Ajeya Cotra - Measuring the Growth of AI  

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