Ganga Basin Water Crisis

Описание: In January 2026, the Ganga Basin is facing an unprecedented water crisis characterized by historic drying trends, extreme groundwater depletion, and critical diplomatic deadlines. Supporting over 600 million people, this "lifeline of India" is under severe hydrological stress.
1. Historic Drying and Drought Stress
Recent scientific assessments in late 2025 and early 2026 reveal that the Ganga is experiencing its most severe drying in over 1,300 years.
Declining Streamflow: River flow has declined sharply since 1991, with recent dry spells estimated to be 76% more intense than any historical analog.
Intensifying Droughts: Approximately 60–70% of the basin shows strong drying trends by the end of the monsoon season, particularly in southern Uttar Pradesh, central Bihar, and northern Madhya Pradesh.
Erratic Monsoon: The number of rainy days is decreasing; rainfall now occurs in fewer, heavier bursts, leading to longer dry spells and reduced natural recharge.
2. Groundwater "Tipping Point"
The basin's aquifers, among the world's largest, are depleting at an alarming rate primarily due to over-extraction for irrigation, which accounts for over 80% of water use.
Depletion Rates: Average storage levels are declining by 2.6 cm per year, with extreme losses of up to 14 cm per year in western states like Rajasthan and Haryana.
Consequences: Groundwater now provides a significant portion of the river's summer flow. Its depletion directly reduces the river's ability to maintain base levels during the dry season.
Land Subsidence: In urban centers like Varanasi, excessive groundwater withdrawal is causing the land to sink by 2–8 mm per year along the riverfront.
3. Diplomatic Crisis: The 2026 Treaty Expiry
A major geopolitical milestone is the expiration of the Indo-Bangladesh Ganga Water Treaty in December 2026.
Renegotiation Challenges: Formal talks began in January 2026 to renew the 30-year pact. India is seeking a shorter treaty (10–15 years) to maintain flexibility as its domestic water needs grow.
Bangladesh's Vulnerability: As the lower riparian state, Bangladesh faces increased salinity and desertification risks if dry-season flows are not guaranteed.
4. Pollution and Rejuvenation Efforts
Despite massive investment through the Namami Gange Programme, the river remains highly polluted.
Treatment Gap: The basin generates roughly 12,000 million liters per day (MLD) of sewage, but existing treatment capacity covers only about a third of this volume.
Industrial Impact: While industrial waste accounts for only 20% by volume, its toxic, non-biodegradable nature remains a disproportionate threat to aquatic health.
5. Climate Change Feedbacks
Glacial Retreat: The Gangotri glacier has retreated nearly a kilometer in two decades, threatening the long-term summer water supply as "water towers" shrink.
Aerosol Cooling: High levels of pollution and irrigation aerosols are ironically creating a localized cooling effect that further disrupts and weakens the monsoon cycle over the basin.