Autumn 2025 Economic Forum

Описание: The UK economy enters the final quarter of 2025 facing persistent inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability risks. Successive shocks in recent years have left public finances stretched, with the UK government now facing the highest borrowing costs in the G7. The narrow headroom of £9.9 billion established by the Chancellor has been insufficient to insulate her and, combined with the weaker than expected tax receipts, means there are now some difficult choices to be made. How will the Chancellor balance the need to maintain market credibility and put public finances on a sustainable footing with the manifesto commitment not to raise the rates of income tax, VAT or employee National Insurance contributions?  What is the best policy mix with regards tax rises and spending cuts?

Our autumn National Institute Economic Outlook will examine the UK through both a domestic and global lens, providing some background context to the options available to the Chancellor in the upcoming Budget. Some of the questions we will explore include how big the fiscal buffer might need to be, what are the likely impacts of the different tax rises, and to what extent are the pressures within the labour market easing.

00:00:00 - 00:01:32 Introduction from David Aikman
00:01:33 - 00:09:23 Global Conditions
00:09:24 - 00:27:14 Outlook for the UK Economy
00:27:15 - 00:54:48 Questions and Answers